This table demonstrates research I conducted after discovering a correlation between student lexile levels given through Istation assessments and their performance on STAAR. With a more than 80% accuracy, if the student's lexile level was above the average Lexile level of the test, the student passed (removing dyslexic students from the group as no accommodation are supplied through Istation's software).
Third grade levels fluctuate greatly year to year, but can still be useful in making predictions and measuring students' reading progress in a real, applicable way.
Use this chart by measuring your students' Lexile levels against the predicted averages to foresee who will likely pass and who will not. It will also give fairly accurate insights into just how far each student is behind or above their anticipated levels.