Students play a quick game with a partner whereby they create a sequence of 3 coloured circles using 1 grey and 2 black circles. Their partner (the "contestant") must decide where they think the grey circle is in the sequence. Their partner (the host) lets them know where one of the (unpicked) black circles is, and the contestant must decide whether to Stick with their answer or Switch it. Students complete a number of rounds in this game to see if they can identify a pattern of probability. They are then prompted to watch a video clip (one link is listed on sheet, but any of the ones below or similar would be fine), to learn about this type of probability problem. Students then have an opportunity to compare their own findings with what they learnt on the video.
Use a YouTube video link such as :
or from the movie 21 if working with older students...