Aim - Toss - Model: Target Toss Lab for Linear, Exponential & Power (AP Precalculus, Algebra 2, AP Statistics)

Bring regression to life in AP Statistics and Precalculus with this target toss lab! Students collect real data, then compare linear, exponential, and power models using log transformations, residuals, and r².

It's a hands-on, data-rich investigation. In this safe “candy toss” lab, students collect data at increasing distances, compute success rates as proportions, and use log transformations to compare linear, exponential, and power models. They use the scatterplots, residual plots, and coefficients of determination to check model fit, and justify which model is best before predicting performance at a new distance. Then they do more tossing from that new distance to see how close the prediction was. This leads to computing a residual and commenting on extrapolation.

✅ What’s Included:

✔ Teacher Directions (step-by-step instructions including suggestions and tips)

✔ Student Lab Worksheet (data table, blank graph paper for the scatterplots &

residual plots, regression equations, residual analysis, predictions, reflection)

✔ Link to a set of Google Slides (which includes a link to a Google Sheet) to

enter the group data. The Slide Presentation can be copied and shared with

students digitally (even through your LMS) so that students modify the

Google Slides answering the same questions as on the paper version of the

lab. The spreadsheet makes it easy to paste the data & transformed data into

Desmos or Stapplet.com for quick analysis and graphical displays.

✔ Optional Grading Rubric (45 points, flexible for class or individual work)

✔ Standards Alignment (AP Statistics CED, Common Core HS S-ID standards)

✅ Skills Covered:

• Fit and compare linear, exponential, and power models
• Log transformations
• Residual plots and r^2 for model assessment
• Discussion of extrapolation and model limitations
• Computation of a residual

✅ Why Teachers Love It:

• Works with TI-84, Desmos, or any regression-capable tech
• Easy hallway/classroom setup with painter’s tape distance lines
• It's different: not the same-old overly used lab for exploring the topic of linear and non-linear regression models.
• High engagement: students build their own dataset from a few common supplies/objects.
• Flexible timing: 50-60 minutes -- perfect for one shorter class period for gathering data & then finishing questions for homework OR could be used in one block period.

✅ Classroom Use Ideas:

• Introduce regression in a memorable way students won’t forget
• Use as a review lab before unit assessments
• Compare results across different groups for a whole-class data analysis discussion
• Extend into inference for regression when paired with Unit 7

✅ Standards Alignment:

• AP Statistics CED: LSRL, slope & intercept interpretation, residuals, correlation, r²
• Common Core HS: S-ID.B.6, S-ID.C.7–9 — fit linear models, interpret parameters, use residuals

✅ Perfect For:

• AP Statistics (Topic 2.7: Linear regression models, Topic 2.10: Residuals)
• Algebra 2 / Precalculus data analysis units
• Any secondary classroom needing a real-world, tactile statistics activity

✅ FAQs:

Q: Can I run this in Algebra 2 without Calculus or AP Stats?
A: Yes. Students only need proportional reasoning and comfort with logarithms; the lab reinforces log rules through linearization.

Q: Do students need graphing calculators?
A: Any tool that runs linear regression works (TI-84, Desmos, Stapplet.com, spreadsheet). Directions mention all options.

Q: Is food involved?
A: Only if you want it to be. You may use pom-poms, plastic Easter Eggs, marshmallows, etc. If using wrapped candy as projectiles, do not eat project materials during the lab; follow school allergy policies.

Q: Can I adapt distances or number of tosses?
A: Absolutely! Keep distances increasing and long enough to create a decreasing success trend; maintain enough trials to stabilize proportions.

➡️ Want to extend this with other regression activities?

Pair this lab with:

• the Sticky Note LSRL Lab (find slope as thickness per note)
• the Interpretation & Error Analysis Worksheets (interpreting slope, y-intercept, correlation, coefficient of determination, and residuals as well as error-spotting poorly written or incorrect interpretations)
• the Regression Calculations Maze (calculating slopes, y-intercepts, correlations, coefficients of determination, and residuals given means and standard deviations of the x's and y's)

• OR Save 20% with the Regression & Modeling Bundle!

✅ Licensing & Terms of Use

This resource is for personal classroom use only. Each purchase grants one license for use by a single teacher.

• ☑️ You may use this resource with your own students in your classroom. You may post to a secure LMS for your enrolled students only.
• ❌ You may not share, copy, or redistribute this resource with other teachers, on the open web, or to an entire school/district. It is not for commercial use. You may not post this product (in part or full) on the internet in any form (including public drives).
• ➕ If colleagues would like to use this resource, please purchase additional licenses at a discount through TPT’s “Buy Multiple Licenses” option.

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