Stop treating Groundhog Day like trivia — make it a standards-worthy data investigation that builds probability, data literacy, and critical thinking. This multi-page PDF guides students through comparing Punxsutawney Phil’s traditional “shadow” forecasts to real NOAA temperature outcomes, calculating accuracy, visualizing results, and defending conclusions with evidence. You know the scene: students enjoy the folklore but can’t explain why tradition doesn’t equal science. This lesson meets th