Probability: Independent Events and Conditional Probability (Common Core Aligned Lesson)

Do you have students who aced two-way frequency tables in Algebra I but struggled with probability concepts and rules in later classes? Do you find yourself needing to extensively review two-way tables before moving on? An effective way to address this issue is to kick off the probability unit by discussing familiar two-way table concepts while 1) introducing new terms and concepts, and 2) building up intuition for subsequent probability lessons.

This resource includes a lesson plan with worksheet and answer key aligned with the common core. Students use two-way table concepts to learn how to compute and interpret conditional probability and to use conditional probability to decide if two events are independent or related. Students build upon two-way table concepts and work with probability notation. The worksheet can be used as an in-class handout or as homework. Questions assess statistical reasoning as well as mechanics.

This product includes:

1) Lesson lecture slides in PDF (annotated with notes), PowerPoint, and Google™ Slides (link in PDF)
2) Lesson lecture handouts in PDF
3) Worksheet in PDF and Google™ Slides with editable features (link in PDF)
4) Answer key with and without detailed rubric in PDF

5) A 5-term vocabulary list relevant to Common Core Standard HSS.CP.A.2, HSS.CP.A.3 in PDF

Objectives:
1) Learn to describe events as subsets of a sample space (set of outcomes) as unions, intersections or complements of other events.
2) Learn how to use probability to determine whether two events are independent
3) Learn how to interpret independence of two events using conditional probability
4) Learn to construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data; use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities.
5) Learn to recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and situations


Common Core Standards:

HSS.CP.A.1: Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or”, “and”, “not”)

HSS.CP.A.2: Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

HSS.CP.A.3: Interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A.

HSS.CP.A.4: Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when 2 categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities.

HSS.CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and situations.

About this product:
The materials in this product have been compressed into a *.zip file. Software to unzip the file is necessary to use these materials. The materials are unzipped into eight separate files. Software for reading PDF(*.pdf) or PowerPoint (*.pptx) documents is needed to use the respective file types.

This purchase is to be used by one teacher only for classroom use. These materials may not be shared without purchasing the appropriate number of licenses. With the exception of remote learning and secure classroom websites, these materials may not be uploaded to the internet in any form (no personal websites, or open network drives, etc.).

Want more resources on probability for the common core? Check these out!:
Distance Learning: Probability Digital Card Sort Activity (Common Core Aligned)
Distance Learning: Evaluate a COVID-19 Test using Probability with Real Data
Distance Learning: Investigate COVID-19 Disparities using Probability with Real Data
Probability: Sample Spaces, Outcomes, and Events (Common Core Aligned Lesson)
Probability: Venn Diagrams and Probability of Events (Common Core Lesson)

Probability Rules: Complement, Addition, Multiplication (Common Core Lesson)

Probability: Permutations and Combinations (Common Core Aligned Lesson)

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© Statistics Education Resources, 2020

Disclaimer:

The National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers are the sole owners and developers of the Common Core State Standards. © Copyright 2010. National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers. All rights reserved.

This product is the work of Statistics Education Resources. Claims of alignment with the Common Core State Standards are the personal opinion of Statistics Education Resources and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers. No association with or endorsement by the National Governors Association Center for Best Practices and Council of Chief State School Officers is intended or implied.